We've nailed our last 2 Bonus Plays (OREGON over AzState, GEORGIA over Florida) and have one for Week 10 in college football.
The Pick: Oklahoma State plus the points
What We See
I think the first thing we see here are teams of rather similar quality.
Oklahoma State has the number one offense in the nation and consistently outperforms the opposing defenses average. Against their FBS competition ( I threw out the Savannah State 84-0 game as irrelevant ), the Cowboys have gained an average of 151.5 yards MORE than their opponents season defensive average and that was with a weather game severely limiting their production against Kansas ( -38 vs Avg ). Kansas State is holding opponents to about 101.5 yards less than their offensive averages so far this year, highlighted by their defensive effort against West Virginia, where they held the ‘Neers to 258 yards below their season average. This is important because the Cowboys run basically the same offense as West Virginia but with slightly more rushing balance ( addressed later ). That game against West Virginia is a big time concern with backing Oklahoma State in this game for a lot of handicappers but I will note a few key differences. When you look at the Kansas State defense as a whole, you find that their weakness is against the pass. They give up 240 yards a game and 6.4 yards per attempt so far this year. Given that Oklahoma State has an aggressive and successful passing game that averages 347 yards per game at 9 yards per pass attempt, it seems like a tough task for the Cats secondary. This means several things as far as backing Oklahoma State is concerned which I will get to at the synopsis but mainly it means that Oklahoma State should have success moving the ball most of the day. Unlike West Virginia, Oklahoma State has the balance of running the ball well to compliment their passing game … so they become much more difficult to defend over the duration.
For the whole write-up, plus a look at other NCAA sides and totals: http://www.gameanalysts.com/?p=1522 and follow along on Twitter @Game_Analysts
The Pick: Oklahoma State plus the points
What We See
I think the first thing we see here are teams of rather similar quality.
Oklahoma State has the number one offense in the nation and consistently outperforms the opposing defenses average. Against their FBS competition ( I threw out the Savannah State 84-0 game as irrelevant ), the Cowboys have gained an average of 151.5 yards MORE than their opponents season defensive average and that was with a weather game severely limiting their production against Kansas ( -38 vs Avg ). Kansas State is holding opponents to about 101.5 yards less than their offensive averages so far this year, highlighted by their defensive effort against West Virginia, where they held the ‘Neers to 258 yards below their season average. This is important because the Cowboys run basically the same offense as West Virginia but with slightly more rushing balance ( addressed later ). That game against West Virginia is a big time concern with backing Oklahoma State in this game for a lot of handicappers but I will note a few key differences. When you look at the Kansas State defense as a whole, you find that their weakness is against the pass. They give up 240 yards a game and 6.4 yards per attempt so far this year. Given that Oklahoma State has an aggressive and successful passing game that averages 347 yards per game at 9 yards per pass attempt, it seems like a tough task for the Cats secondary. This means several things as far as backing Oklahoma State is concerned which I will get to at the synopsis but mainly it means that Oklahoma State should have success moving the ball most of the day. Unlike West Virginia, Oklahoma State has the balance of running the ball well to compliment their passing game … so they become much more difficult to defend over the duration.
For the whole write-up, plus a look at other NCAA sides and totals: http://www.gameanalysts.com/?p=1522 and follow along on Twitter @Game_Analysts
